Mastercard Predicts One in Ten Shoppers Will Use AI by 2030; Morgan Stanley Estimates Half
According to a report from Mastercard (MA), more than one in ten online shoppers will use artificial intelligence agents for shopping and payments by 2030, translating into over 300 million users globally. The projection is based on research involving parents and teenagers across European markets but extrapolated worldwide. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley Research estimates that AI-assisted purchases could capture up to 10%–20% of the U.S. e-commerce market by 2030, with $190 billion to $385 billion in spending. Interestingly, recent data suggests adoption is already underway: approximately 23% of Americans used AI for purchases within the past month, primarily for groceries and consumer goods. However, this differs from fully autonomous shopping by AI agents, which Mastercard's report envisions as a future development. FinteqHub CEO Vadim Drozd argues that widespread use may arrive earlier than predicted—closer to 2028—as AI integration into existing platforms like smartphones and browsers accelerates adoption without requiring users to learn new tools. The shift could disrupt traditional payment dynamics, where consumers choose a default card based on rewards or convenience. With AI agents making purchase decisions by comparing cashback rates and fees in real time, brand loyalty and visual appeal may become less influential.
Topics: Artificial Intelligence Consumer Behavior E-Commerce Mastercard Report