Oil Prices Rise Amid Middle East Geopolitical Uncertainty Following US Midterm Elections

Brent crude futures rose on Thursday as investors reacted to the political fallout of recent US midterm elections, where the Republican Party suffered significant losses. The election results have introduced uncertainty regarding President Donald Trump's future approach to the ongoing conflict with Iran alongside Israel. While some analysts suggest markets are pricing in a potential end to the war, others warn of increased volatility due to thin global strategic reserves and an uncertain diplomatic path. Despite a recent return to a market surplus—estimated by JPMorgan at 1.4 million barrels per day for October—geopolitical risks remain high. Eurasia Group noted that while the probability of renewed US strikes on Iran has been slightly lowered, the likelihood of a diplomatic deal has also decreased. Analysts warn that any further escalation in the conflict could drive Brent crude prices into the $110 to $125 per barrel range.

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