AARP Report: Social Security Could Fund Full Benefits Until 2059 if Taxable Payroll Aligned with GDP
A new report from the AARP Public Policy Institute suggests that Social Security's solvency could be significantly extended if payroll tax revenue kept pace with the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). According to the research, aligning taxable payroll with GDP levels would allow the program to pay full benefits until 2059, providing an additional 25 years of stability compared to current projections. The report highlights that while the U.S. economy has grown more productive over the last four decades, Social Security's revenue share has declined from 41% of GDP in 1983 to approximately 34% in 2025. This decline is attributed to shifting income patterns and a payroll tax cap that no longer covers the same proportion of high-level earnings as it did during previous reforms. Currently, Social Security trustees project that combined trust funds may be depleted by the third quarter of 2034, at which point only 83% of scheduled benefits would be payable. The AARP argues that addressing this shortfall requires rebuilding the revenue system rather than cutting earned benefits.
Topics: AARP Report GDP Payroll Tax Public Policy Social Security