October rate hike odds rise to nearly 50% after CPI data
The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in October has increased significantly following the latest consumer price index (CPI) report. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now give a 49.3% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on October 2026. This marks a notable shift in market expectations and suggests policymakers may still consider tightening monetary policy despite recent economic signals. The CPI data appears to have reinforced concerns about persistent inflation, prompting investors to reassess their outlook for future rate decisions. While the odds remain just below 50%, this near-coin-flip probability indicates growing uncertainty among traders regarding whether the Fed will act in October. The market is closely watching upcoming economic indicators and central bank communications for further clarity. The potential hike comes amid a broader backdrop of mixed inflation data, with some signs pointing to easing price pressures but others showing continued resilience.
Topics: CPI Federal Reserve inflation interest rates
Read the full article at Seeking Alpha
Part of the story October rate hike odds rise to nearly 50% after CPI data (3 articles)