Prediction Markets Suggest Inflation Has Peaked for 2026 but Will Remain Elevated
Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi believe inflation has likely peaked for the year, though they expect it to remain elevated through 2026. The expected September consumer price index (CPI) is projected at a 3.6% annual increase, slightly higher than August's 3.4%. However, traders assign less than one-in-three odds that inflation will set new highs in the remainder of the year. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to stay steady at 2.4%, consistent with economist forecasts. Traders also see only a small chance—about 6%—that core inflation will drop below 2.2% this year, a level not seen since before the post-2021 inflation surge. The contracts on Kalshi are based on official Bureau of Labor Statistics data and reflect market sentiment ahead of Wednesday's CPI release.
Topics: CPI inflation Kalshi prediction markets