Traders See Low Chance of Fed Rate Hike in October After Weak Jobs Report
A weaker-than-expected September jobs report has significantly reduced traders' expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, with the probability now at just 17%, down from nearly 36% one week earlier. The disappointing employment data followed softer inflation figures released on Wednesday, further cooling market anticipation of tighter monetary policy. While an increase is unlikely this month, investors still expect a potential rate hike in December, with over 75% odds according to the CME FedWatch tool. The U.S. economy added only 29,000 jobs in September—far below estimates—and core inflation rose by less than expected at 3%, reinforcing calls for patience from policymakers like Adam Schickling of Vanguard. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its next rate decision on October 28 after a two-day policy meeting. The shift reflects the Fed's ongoing balancing act between employment and price stability, with recent data suggesting it may delay further tightening until more clarity emerges.
Tickers: $CME
Topics: Federal Reserve Inflation Interest Rates Jobs Report