Citi Downgrades Moderna Amid Concerns Over Valuation and Cancer Drug Sales Expectations
On September 30, 2026, Citi downgraded its rating on Moderna from Neutral to Sell, citing concerns that the stock's recent surge has priced in unrealistic expectations for future cancer drug sales. The downgrade comes after a significant rally triggered by positive Phase 3 trial results of Moderna’s personalized mRNA cancer vaccine developed with Merck. Citi analyst Geoff Meacham argues that even under optimistic assumptions about success rates, the company's valuation is not supported by its fundamentals or pipeline value. According to Citi's analysis, Moderna would need approximately $26 billion in annual cancer sales—$13 billion of which would go directly to the company—to justify a stock price near current levels. The firm also highlighted that Moderna’s market cap now rivals Regeneron’s despite significantly lower expected revenue and earnings. Citi raised its price target for Moderna from $60 to $80, implying roughly 60% downside potential.
