Morgan Stanley Raises US Data-Center Power Shortfall Forecast to 33 GW by 2028
Investment bank Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for the U.S. data-center power shortfall through 2028 from a previous estimate of 57 gigawatts (GW) to 68 GW, with an adjusted residual gap of 33 GW after accounting for new on-site generation and other accelerated solutions. The increase is attributed to higher chip shipment estimates and the shift toward more energy-intensive rack-scale systems like Nvidia’s Vera Rubin Ultra, which now consume up to 600 kW per rack compared to earlier models. The updated model shows a growing cumulative power gap rising from 5 GW in 2026 to 33 GW by 2028. Morgan Stanley also revised its forecast after correcting for double-counted powered-shell sites, which had previously reduced the shortfall estimate. The bank estimates that probability-weighted solutions such as behind-the-meter turbines and fuel cells could supply up to 24 GW of additional power through 2028. Despite improvements in chip efficiency—tokens per watt are expected to rise nearly sixfold between 2025 and 2028—the overall electricity demand is still projected to increase due to greater AI adoption. The capital cost for a Rubin Ultra-based facility has dropped significantly, but the higher power requirements continue to pose challenges.
Topics: AI infrastructure Morgan Stanley Nvidia power demand rack-scale systems