JPMorgan Admits Uncertainty in Forecasting Oil Prices Amid Ongoing Iran Conflict
JPMorgan has admitted it cannot predict the future direction of oil prices due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict with Iran. In a note dated September 17, JPMorgan's head of commodities strategy Natasha Kaneva stated that for the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, there is no clear baseline view on where oil prices will go. The bank previously forecasted in July that Brent crude would average $86 per barrel during Q3 2026. However, recent developments have pushed oil to around $95 a barrel and gas prices near $4.48 per gallon, with ten-year Treasury yields approaching 5%. JPMorgan outlined three economic redlines it believed the Trump administration wouldn't cross—$100/barrel crude, $5/gallon gasoline, or 5% yield on Treasuries—all of which have now been breached. The analysts also highlighted rising diesel prices to a record high and dwindling inventories ahead of winter demand. With no diplomatic breakthrough in sight between the U.S. and Iran, JPMorgan said it is increasingly difficult to assume that market disruptions are temporary.
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Topics: Iran War JPMorgan oil price forecasting