UBS Raises Price Target for Newmont on Improved Capital Returns Outlook
UBS has raised its price target for Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) to $155 per share from $120, maintaining a Buy rating. The upgrade is based on improved clarity around capital returns and the company's path toward growing production per share. A major overhang—related litigation with Barrick Gold regarding their joint venture in Nevada—was resolved in August 2026 for a net payment of $1.95 billion from Newmont. UBS highlights that Newmont has returned more than $7 billion to shareholders this year, offering an estimated distribution yield of around 6.5%. The bank also anticipates the company could reduce its share count by up to 25% through buybacks by 2030, leading to gold-equivalent ounce growth per share of approximately 45%, or a 10% compound annual rate. Despite Newmont's past underperformance on production guidance, UBS believes the company’s long-life assets require less reinvestment than peers. The bank expects multi-year operational guidance will be reinstated with Q4 results, which could justify a premium valuation over time.
Topics: Buybacks Capital Returns Dividend Policy Gold Mining