JPMorgan Abandons Predictions for End of Iran Oil Conflict
JPMorgan Chase has abandoned its previous forecasts regarding the end of the ongoing conflict involving Iranian oil exports, which had been based on economic thresholds such as crude prices above $100 per barrel and gasoline near $5 a gallon. These levels were expected to force political action from President Donald Trump by June 2026; however, despite exceeding these benchmarks, no resolution has materialized. The bank now admits it cannot model the conflict's endgame due to its unpredictability. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked under a U.S. naval blockade, and supply disruptions have led to one of the largest annual contractions in global oil output since the pandemic. JPMorgan estimates that each million barrels per day lost adds about $4 to crude prices, yet demand is also declining rapidly due to high fuel costs. The International Energy Agency reports a 2.5-million-barrel-per-day drop in world consumption this year and expects supply to fall by 5.7 million barrels daily. Despite these figures, JPMorgan now lacks confidence in predicting when the conflict might resolve.
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Topics: economic thresholds geopolitical risk JPMorgan research oil prices