Xponential Fitness Cuts Guidance Amid Weaker Sales and Slower Expansion
Xponential Fitness Inc. (NYSE:XPOF) has seen its financial outlook downgraded by UBS following weaker-than-expected sales performance, particularly in the second quarter, which led management to revise revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 downward to between $250 million and $260 million. EBITDA forecasts were also reduced to a range of $91 million to $97 million. UBS lowered its own estimates by adjusting second-half revenue projections down by 9% to 10%, with revised EBITDA targets set at $94 million for FY2026 and $84 million for FY2027. The company is also experiencing slower studio expansion, expecting only 150 net openings in the year—well below UBS's estimate of 164 and broader market expectations of 207. Operational challenges include difficulties with transitioning to a new third-party logistics provider, which has impacted merchandise sourcing and execution. Despite these issues, Xponential cited positive trends such as an 8% growth in the fitness industry overall and increased participation from younger consumers under age 25, who now make up 31% of U.S. gym memberships compared to just 10% a decade ago.
