Six Months into Iran Conflict, Energy Markets Face Persistent Uncertainty
As the conflict in Iran enters its seventh month with no clear resolution, energy markets remain deeply uncertain about how to model a potential endgame. Analysts at JPMorgan have noted that for the first time since the war began, there is no baseline view of what might happen next due to ongoing disruptions and geopolitical complexity. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with daily vessel transits significantly below pre-war levels. Meanwhile, Houthi militants in Yemen are intensifying pressure on Saudi Arabia by capturing key infrastructure, including the East-West pipeline that rerouted oil from the Persian Gulf. These developments have pushed global crude prices back above $100 per barrel and driven U.S. gasoline and diesel to record highs. JPMorgan strategists highlight that initial forecasts for a sharp drawdown in global oil stocks have not materialized as expected, with demand falling instead of supply tightening further. The lack of clarity is compounding market stress ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
Tickers: $JPM
Topics: energy markets Hormuz Strait Iran conflict oil supply disruption