NFL Season Expected to Drive $40 Billion in Wagering Activity as Prediction Markets Gain Ground
The NFL season is projected to generate approximately $40 billion in U.S. wagering activity, with regulated sportsbooks capturing about 80% of the market share at an estimated $31.7 billion in handle — a rise from last year's figures. However, prediction markets are emerging as notable contenders, particularly in states where traditional sports betting is restricted or monopolized by tribal operators like Florida’s Seminole Tribe. These platforms have seen significant growth and now account for about 21% of the combined market share with an estimated $8.4 billion in NFL-related wagering activity. Prediction markets are expanding their reach through app downloads, with Polymarket surpassing Kalshi during kickoff week. While there is currently limited evidence that prediction platforms are significantly diverting business from traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel — which have launched their own prediction services — some operators such as BetMGM report a more noticeable impact. Sportsbooks still offer advantages in terms of user experience, loyalty programs, and betting options, but prediction markets are adapting by introducing complex contracts similar to parlays. The sector is becoming increasingly competitive with new entrants like Novig and Underdog gaining traction through aggressive marketing strategies.
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Topics: Market growth Prediction markets Sports betting Wagering activity