JPMorgan Abandons Forecasting Iran War Endgame Amid Escalating Tensions
JPMorgan has abandoned its efforts to predict how and when the conflict with Iran will end, citing an unclear exit strategy despite crossed economic redlines. Analyst Natasha Kaneva noted that assumptions about a June resolution based on oil prices above $100 or gas near $5 per gallon have not led to de-escalation as expected. The situation has worsened in recent weeks: oil is again over $100, diesel exceeds $6 per gallon with record-low inventories, and tensions remain high between the U.S. and Iran. Trump hinted at a major decision on whether to escalate or end hostilities, while Saudi Arabia’s pipeline was damaged by drone attacks and Houthi forces are gaining control in critical shipping areas. JPMorgan estimates that global oil markets have priced in an additional 4 million barrels per day of supply disruption beyond the current 10 million bpd. However, inventories remain higher than expected, offering some buffer against prolonged price spikes.
Tickers: $JPM
Topics: Iran conflict JPMorgan oil prices Treasury yields U.S.-Iran relations