Standard Chartered Warns Oil Prices Face Sharper and More Frequent Spikes
Oil prices surged to nearly $110 per barrel as tensions in the Middle East persist, with Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) claiming attacks on oil tankers and U.S. Navy ships near Hormuz. The U.S., however, denies these claims while President Donald Trump suggests a prolonged conflict ahead of November’s midterm elections. Standard Chartered analysts predict continued volatility through Q3 2026 due to the stalemate in US-Iran relations and logistical bottlenecks from heat and drought. The bank forecasts strong performance for middle distillates like diesel, gasoil, and jet fuel over gasoline amid ongoing export restrictions at Hormuz. StanChart expects oil prices to average $77.50 per barrel by 2027 due to recovering demand in China and the need to replenish strategic reserves. The market is increasingly vulnerable to sharp price spikes as spare capacity dwindles. Europe’s natural gas prices also rose sharply, reaching €81/MWh amid Middle East disruptions. Qatar has tested LNG exports through Hormuz but uncertainty remains about whether this signals a sustained return of Persian Gulf shipments.
Topics: geopolitical_conflict Middle_East oil_prices Standard_Chartered