CNBC Survey Shows Shift in Expectations for Multiple Fed Rate Hikes Over the Next Year
A recent CNBC Federal Reserve survey indicates a significant shift in expectations, with most respondents now forecasting at least two rate hikes over the next year. This is up from just 46% expecting any hike one month ago and reflects concerns about persistent inflation driven by rising oil prices and broader economic factors. Respondents cited elevated energy costs as a key driver of their revised outlook, noting that three-quarters believe inflation extends beyond energy alone. The average CPI forecast for this year rose to nearly 3.5%, with expectations settling at around 2.85% in 2027. Despite these concerns, recession risks remain unchanged at an estimated 29% over the next twelve months. While optimism about stock market performance persists—with forecasts of a flat S&P 500 this year and gains expected in 2027—some analysts question whether rate hikes can effectively address supply-driven inflation. The debate centers on balancing economic growth with necessary tightening to bring down inflation.
Tickers: $SPX