Commerzbank Raises Year-End Brent Crude Forecast to $85 per Barrel
On September 11, Commerzbank raised its year-end forecast for Brent crude oil prices from $75 to $85 a barrel. The adjustment reflects the bank's belief that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually recovering, including so-called 'dark transits' not visible on public tracking systems. By late 2026, Commerzbank expects transit volumes in the strait to reach around 8 million barrels per day and potentially rise further by next year. The bank also noted that oil production outside the Gulf has increased by an average of 1.2 million barrels a day since regional disruptions began due to Houthi attacks, partially offsetting supply losses from Saudi Arabia’s reduced output. Commerzbank anticipates crude prices will ease over coming quarters and return near pre-war levels by mid-2027 as the market adjusts. While several banks have raised their Brent forecasts recently amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in key shipping lanes, Commerzbank's outlook is more optimistic than some of its peers. HSBC has set a $90 target for 2026 and $85 for 2027.
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Topics: Brent crude Commerzbank analysis oil price forecast shipping disruptions