OECD Commercial Oil Inventories Remain Stable Amid War, Goldman Sachs Outlines Price Scenarios
According to the OECD, commercial oil inventories have barely declined since the war began, indicating a smaller-than-expected supply deficit. The inventory drawdown has been concentrated in strategic reserves and China rather than visible global stocks. Goldman Sachs strategists suggest that low visible global oil inventories do not necessarily signal an imminent price increase. Despite landed oil inventories falling to 8.6 billion barrels from 9.1 billion before the war, they remain above minimum operational levels. The bank also notes reduced Chinese crude imports could limit potential price surges. Goldman outlined upside and downside scenarios for Brent prices in 2027 based on Gulf production recovery or setbacks due to geopolitical risks like shipping attacks near Hormuz and the Red Sea.
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Topics: Brent crude price scenarios Goldman Sachs analysis OECD reserves oil inventories