CBRE Reports Resilient Office Demand Amid AI Growth
CBRE's research suggests that artificial intelligence will not significantly displace office workers in the near term, with only 5% of office-using employees considered highly vulnerable to automation. The firm forecasts a modest annual growth rate of 0.9% for office employment over five years—slower than historical averages but still outpacing broader economic projections at 0.6%. CBRE attributes this resilience primarily to demographic constraints, such as aging populations and reduced immigration, rather than widespread AI adoption. The report highlights that highly skilled roles in collaborative environments are likely to benefit from AI-driven productivity gains, which may favor office-based work over fully remote setups. Additionally, the firm notes historical parallels where previous technology waves like the internet did not diminish but instead boosted employment growth for office-centric industries. CBRE also observes a shift toward longer lease terms and concentrated tech leasing activity in major hubs such as San Francisco and New York. Despite concerns about AI's impact on job displacement, CBRE argues that it may reshape where demand is strongest rather than reduce total office jobs. The firm predicts US office vacancy rates will reach 14.5% by 2031 under a baseline scenario, with even the worst-case AI-driven outcome reaching only 18.7%.
Topics: AI commercial real estate employment trends office vacancy rates