FOMC September 2026 Rate Hike Probability Exceeds 60%
Traders using the CME FedWatch tool now assign over a 60% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike at its upcoming FOMC meeting in late September. This marks an increase from earlier odds, which had suggested nearly 70% chances of no change following Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. The shift reflects concerns about inflation not yet reaching the Fed's 2% target and recent economic data suggesting persistent price pressures. The probability estimates vary across platforms—Kalshi at 57%, Polymarket at 49%. These differences stem from varying trader pools, contract structures, and timing snapshots rather than a contradiction. The September meeting will also feature the Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot), adding to its significance. Bitcoin has not yet shown a clear price response to these shifting odds despite rising interest rate expectations typically affecting non-yielding assets like crypto. While bond markets have reacted with higher Treasury yields, BTC remains relatively stable at $79,250 as of the report date.
Topics: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting interest rates rate hike probabilities