HSBC Raises 2026 Brent Crude Forecast to $90 Amid Hormuz Tensions
HSBC has raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in 2026 from $80 per barrel to $90, citing ongoing tensions at the Strait of Hormuz and a lack of progress toward de-escalation. The bank's analysis suggests that global oil markets will remain imbalanced until mid-2027 due to constrained flows through this critical shipping chokepoint. HSBC analyst Kim Fustier estimates that daily oil flows through Hormuz could rise from the current 6 million barrels per day (bpd) to about 8 million bpd by year-end, though this is below some other projections. Even at higher levels, these volumes remain significantly lower than pre-conflict rates of around 19-20 million bpd. The bank also outlined a 'stalemate' scenario where failed diplomacy and continued flow restrictions could push Brent prices to $120 per barrel—though this is not considered the base case. Current spot prices for Brent crude have already exceeded $100, reflecting heightened market anxiety.
Tickers: $HSBC
Topics: Brent Crude HSBC forecast oil market tightness Strait of Hormuz crisis