FOMC Odds for a September Rate Hike Rise Above 50%
Market expectations have shifted in favor of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its September meeting, with odds now above 56% according to CME FedWatch. This change followed remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh during his Jackson Hole speech, which emphasized concerns over inflation not improving sufficiently and a need for confidence that price trends are moving toward the central bank's target. The shift in expectations is reflected across multiple platforms: Kalshi traders assigned 48% odds to a rate hike while Polymarket showed similar probabilities. Prior to Warsh’s speech, market participants had expected rates to remain unchanged with about 70% probability. The change has also affected short-term Treasury yields, which reached their highest level since late July. While the repricing of expectations is clear in interest-rate markets and may influence broader risk sentiment, there's no direct evidence that this shift has yet impacted Bitcoin or other crypto assets significantly.
Topics: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting interest rates rate hike expectations