IEA Warns Oil Refining System Under Strain Amid Ongoing Conflicts
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its global oil supply forecast downward by 6% for 2026 due to the ongoing war in Iran. The agency also expects a larger-than-anticipated drop of 2.5 million barrels per day in global oil demand this year, up from an earlier projection of 1.6 million bpd decline. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have led to attacks on tankers near key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, further straining already tight markets. The IEA highlighted that shrinking oil inventories and a refining system operating at full capacity are increasing vulnerability in global energy markets. It emphasized the urgent need for diplomatic progress in resolving both the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war to prevent additional market disruptions.
Topics: demand forecast International Energy Agency Iran war oil supply Ukraine conflict