Wall Street Enters a Historically Volatile Season After Summer Calm
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) has reached its lowest level of 2026 at 14.13, reflecting unusually calm conditions on Wall Street during the summer months. However, historical data suggests that volatility typically increases around this time of year as markets approach a historically more turbulent stretch in September and October. While rising VIX levels do not necessarily indicate falling stock prices, they signal an increase in potential market movement. Seasonal trends show that September has been weak for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) on average since 1950, especially during midterm election years like 2026. However, October and November have historically seen stronger performance following this period of uncertainty. Though not a predictive trading system, these seasonal tendencies suggest that while volatility may rise in the coming months, it could also be followed by recovery later in the fall.
Topics: S&P 500 seasonality VIX index volatility Wall Street activity