Goldman Sachs Warns Oil Prices Face Limited Upside Despite Hormuz Recovery
Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby have issued a report highlighting the recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which had been severely disrupted by an Iran-related conflict earlier in 2026. While crude exports are rebounding to around 15–16 million barrels per day—up from March lows but still below pre-conflict levels—the market has adapted with increased use of dark crossings and ship-to-ship transfers, which could limit further oil price gains. The bank notes that while crude prices have fallen sharply since their April peak above $120 to around $83 at the time of writing, European natural gas and refined fuels remain more vulnerable due to less flexible supply chains. Goldman expects greater upside risk for these segments in case disruptions persist, particularly because Europe relies heavily on imported liquefied natural gas with limited storage capacity. The report underscores a nuanced outlook: while crude oil may not see significant price increases despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, other parts of the energy market remain exposed to volatility.
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Topics: energy market Goldman Sachs Hormuz Strait oil