S&P 500 Has Outpaced US Inflation for Most of Past Two Decades
The S&P 500 has outperformed U.S. inflation in 16 of the past 20 calendar years, according to historical data cited by The Kobeissi Letter and BeInCrypto. As of July 2026, consumer prices had risen 3.4% over the previous year while the index gained 13.5%. Inflation-adjusted returns were strong in recent years: 14.76% real return in 2025 after a 2.70% inflation rate and double-digit gains in both 2024 (21.47%) and 2023 (22.11%). The index only failed to beat inflation four times since the year 2000: 2008, 2011, 2018, and 2022. Three of those years saw low inflation rates below 3%, but in 2022, with a peak annual CPI increase of 6.5%, the S&P still fell short by delivering an 18.11% loss. Earnings growth has been central to recent performance, particularly from AI infrastructure beneficiaries like Nvidia. Goldman Sachs Research noted that these firms are expected to account for nearly half of index earnings in 2026.
Tickers: $SPGI
Topics: historical performance inflation real returns S&P 500