Goldman Sachs Revises Diesel Refining Margin Forecast Amid Global Shortage
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for diesel refining margins, predicting they will reach $63 per barrel in the U.S. and average $49 per barrel in the EU by 2027—up from previous estimates of $27 and $19 respectively. The increase is attributed to a global shortage driven by refinery strikes and damage in the Middle East and Russia, which have reduced refining capacity below seasonal averages by 60%. Diesel stocks are particularly low due to these disruptions. The situation has been exacerbated in Europe by climate regulations that led energy companies to shut down refining facilities. In addition, fuel exports from the Persian Gulf remain at only about 40% of pre-war levels compared to crude oil's 70-80%. The U.S. crack spread recently hit a record high for the first time ever. Goldman Sachs analysts expect tight diesel markets to persist into next year due to ongoing supply constraints and export restrictions, such as Russia’s extended diesel export ban.
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Topics: diesel energy crisis Goldman Sachs refineries