Trucking Market Cycle Remains Supply-Driven According to Latest Data
The current trucking market cycle is more supply-driven than any recent period, according to the latest data from SONAR. The Accepted Truckload Volume Index (ASTVI) averaged around 9,800 last week while rejection rates hovered near 13.5%, both down from their annual highs but still indicating a tight capacity environment. Accepted tender volumes are typically used as an indicator of total demand when rejections remain low (<5%). However, with higher rejections, the ASTVI may undercount actual freight volume due to spot market activity and contract renegotiations. The data suggests that while recent declines in rejection rates reflect reduced demand pressure rather than increased capacity. The trucking industry is still recovering from a prolonged oversupply period following the pandemic. Despite some improvement in Q2 2026 earnings, carriers are reporting annual fleet reductions with Class 8 orders driven more by replacement needs than growth. Analysts suggest that supply-side adjustments remain slow and may continue to tighten market conditions further due to factors like rail disruptions and government policies.
Topics: SONAR data supply and demand dynamics truckload market