Goldman Sachs Estimates Gulf Oil Exports at Over 60% Pre-Iran War Levels
According to Goldman Sachs, oil exports from the Gulf have risen to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day (bpd), representing more than 60% of pre-war levels. While still below normal by around 7-8 million bpd before the conflict began, shipments are up significantly compared to their March low during the war's peak phase. The analysts noted that tracking oil flows from the Gulf has become challenging due to limited and delayed information on tanker traffic caused by the ongoing conflict. Many tankers now leave with transponders turned off or engage in ship-to-ship transfers outside Hormuz, making real-time monitoring difficult. Revisions later suggest transit through the Strait of Hormuz is likely near 8 million to 10 million bpd. Goldman Sachs' oil research head Daan Struyven and colleagues said producers are adapting by using dark crossings and ship-to-ship transfers. They also noted that shipping markets now factor in continued disruptions well into 2027.
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Topics: Gulf oil exports shipping disruptions Strait of Hormuz tanker tracking