OPEC+ Loses Influence in Oil Market Amid Iran War; China Emerges as Key Player
Six months into the war with Iran, OPEC+'s influence over global oil markets has significantly diminished. The conflict disrupted a major export route through the Strait of Hormuz and damaged energy infrastructure across several Middle Eastern countries, reducing OPEC+'s market share from nearly 48% to around 40%. Its ability to affect prices is now limited as its policy decisions have little impact on global oil markets. Meanwhile, China has emerged as a dominant force in balancing the oil market. A sharp decline in Chinese crude imports—about 400 million barrels less than during the same period last year—has helped stabilize prices amid supply disruptions caused by the war. This shift reflects lower refining output and increased adoption of electric vehicles. OPEC+, which includes OPEC members and allies like Russia, has attempted to adjust production levels but is constrained physically due to ongoing wartime blockades. Analysts note that China's growing role in shaping oil demand marks a significant change from the past when OPEC+ was seen as the primary swing producer.
Topics: China's role in crude demand global oil market influence Iran war OPEC+