Kalshi Traders Predict Low Chances of Major Crypto Bill Becoming Law This Year
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, passed by the House with bipartisan support in July 2025 and set for a procedural vote in the Senate on Sept. 15, is unlikely to become law this year according to Kalshi traders. Traders estimate less than a 25% chance of passage before the end of 2026 and under 50% odds by April 2027. The bill aims to establish clear regulatory boundaries for digital commodities between the SEC and CFTC, but uncertainty remains due to political delays. President Donald Trump has urged Congress to pass a version of the act, yet Senate progress is slow. If stalled further, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig warned that his agency may take unilateral action on crypto regulation. Despite recent gains in Bitcoin prices linked to regulatory optimism, market participants remain skeptical about legislative momentum.
Topics: cryptocurrency regulation Digital Asset Market Clarity Act SEC-CFTC framework