Morgan Stanley Analyst Argues SpaceX's Non-AI Businesses Justify Majority of Stock Valuation
SpaceX recently reported better-than-expected earnings, with losses narrower than anticipated and sales exceeding forecasts. Despite this positive performance, the stock initially dropped due to lock-up expirations allowing insiders to sell shares before recovering above its IPO price. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas argues that SpaceX's non-AI segments—primarily Space and Connectivity—are already justifying nearly all of the company’s current $140 share price based on EBITDA forecasts. Jonas estimates these divisions generated $8.6 billion in EBITDA over the past year, projecting a 266% increase by 2028 to reach $31.5 billion. This would account for about 91% of SpaceX’s current valuation. Meanwhile, its AI division is currently unprofitable but expected to generate massive profits—$95.3 billion in EBITDA—by the same year if Jonas' projections hold true. The analyst suggests that investors are undervaluing the fast-growing AI segment compared to slower-growth areas of SpaceX. This valuation discrepancy raises questions about whether current market pricing reflects a fair assessment of future potential.
Topics: earnings report lock-up expiration Morgan Stanley analysis SpaceX