BofA Survey Indicates Record Confidence in 'No Landing' Economic Scenario Ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech
Bank of America’s August global fund manager survey shows a record consensus among investors that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession, or “no landing,” despite high interest rates. Investor sentiment is at its third most bullish level since early 2022, with equity allocations reaching their highest point in over four years and cash levels near historic lows. This optimism comes as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh prepares for his first major speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium later this month. Unlike previous chairs, Warsh has reduced forward guidance, leaving markets to interpret macroeconomic data independently, which adds uncertainty around future policy moves. The survey also indicates that most fund managers do not expect a rate hike before November’s midterms. However, while equity investors are bullish, the bond market is signaling caution with 30-year Treasury yields hitting their highest level since 2007. This divergence highlights structural concerns such as U.S. fiscal deficits and competition for capital from AI-driven corporate debt issuance.
Topics: economic growth Fed interest rates investor confidence Jackson Hole