Kalshi Traders Predict July Jobs Report Will Fall Short of Consensus Estimates
Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi are forecasting that the U.S. jobs report for July will come in below economists' consensus estimates, which currently stand at 85,000 new jobs added. According to current trading activity, there is only a 47% chance of more than 80,000 jobs being created and a one-in-three probability that the number could fall below 60,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the official July employment data on Friday. Kalshi traders also give a higher likelihood—60%—that employers added more than 70,000 jobs in the month. This contrasts with last month's report where traders overestimated job gains significantly; they predicted a high chance for June’s figure to exceed consensus estimates but it came in at just 57,000. The market is closely watching this data as employment figures are key indicators of economic health and can influence monetary policy decisions.
Topics: economic forecasts jobs report Kalshi prediction market