US Q2 GDP and PCE Data Expected on Thursday Amid Market Focus
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release its preliminary second-quarter GDP estimate on July 30, with forecasts pointing toward annualized growth of around 2.1%. The data will be closely watched for signs of economic resilience amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and potential impacts from Trump's tariffs and energy price volatility. Alongside the headline GDP figure, investors are also focused on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—and the GDP Price Index. These metrics will influence expectations for future Federal Reserve rate decisions and could impact the US Dollar Index (DXY). The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model currently forecasts 1.6% Q2 growth, down slightly from earlier estimates. The release is expected to have a significant market-moving effect given its timing following the July FOMC meeting and amid ongoing uncertainty in global markets.
Topics: Fed policy GDP inflation market impact