Morgan Stanley Warns SpaceX Faces Critical Market Challenges
Morgan Stanley has warned that SpaceX is approaching its most challenging period, likening it to 'Max Q'—the point in a rocket's ascent where aerodynamic stress peaks. The firm highlighted the stock’s sharp decline from an IPO price of $135 and all-time high of $225.64 to around $112 as of July 30, 2026—a drop of nearly 50%. SpaceX’s market cap has also fallen by over $1.5 trillion since its peak. A major concern is the unlocking of approximately 911.5 million shares on August 6—about 20% of restricted holdings—which could introduce significant selling pressure into the stock, valued at around $100 billion at current prices. Morgan Stanley expects this to dominate near-term sentiment and influence investor behavior. Despite these challenges, Morgan Stanley maintains an 'Overweight' rating with a price target of $300 for SPCX. The firm anticipates that investors will focus more on management commentary during the earnings call than actual financial results.
Topics: IPO performance Max Q Morgan Stanley share unlocking SpaceX