U.S. National Debt Surpasses WWII Levels as Treasury Yields Hit Decade-Long Streak
The U.S. national debt has surpassed 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II, reaching $31.27 trillion in March 2026 against a nominal GDP of roughly $31.22 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office projects this ratio will rise to 108% by 2030. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield has remained above 5% for 27 days this year—the longest stretch since 2007—despite the Federal Reserve’s easing monetary policy. The long-end of the bond market is being driven higher by persistent inflation and a surge in high-yield corporate debt from AI-related data center buildouts. This has led to an inversion at the far end of the yield curve, with 20-year yields now above those for 30-year bonds. The increased competition for capital is also pushing up borrowing costs for investment-grade companies. Investors are drawing parallels between current conditions and pre-2008 financial crisis levels, though key indicators like the VIX volatility index suggest a more measured market environment than in 2007.
Topics: ai investment inflation national debt treasury yields