Kalshi Traders Predict Strait of Hormuz Traffic Won't Return to Normal Until August or Later
Kalshi traders estimate a 50% chance that normal traffic will resume in the Strait of Hormuz by August and a 59% chance by September. The prediction is based on a 7-day moving average of transit crossing 60, as defined by IMF PortWatch data. The ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and lack of progress in negotiations are influencing the market's expectations.
Topics: Ceasefire Kalshi prediction market Naval blockade Strait of Hormuz U.S.-Iran relations